The official result is out:
Eugene F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller are the winners of this year due to their “empirical analysis of asset prices”. Unfortunately none of the participants in NEC survey has guessed but once more we want to thank your contribute.
Below, you can find the most cited papers (at Ideas/Googlescholar) of each of the winners:
“Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, The Journal of Finance
“Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models”, Journal of Political Economy